CALCULATED RISKS GERD GIGERENZER PDF

Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Bad presentation of .. the United States as Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon.

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He illustrates how different versions of probability result in wildly different assessments of risk. Apparently, GPs and surgeons are not as numerate as you would hope, so that makes me feel better or not, if in their hands. But if the reason for the false positive is some biological feature- the person’s blood proteins are unusual and cannot be detected correctly by the testing chemicals, or something, gigrenzer performing more tests will not necessarily clear things up.

Not surprisingly, innumeracy can be exploited. Gigerenzzer Preview See a Problem?

There was a very dramatic case that occurred at a medical centre in Salt Lake City, Utah, where a man with HIV had 35 negative tests within a 4-year period, because although he had a strain of HIV that is typical in the US, the tests were unable to gigernzer his antibodies.

Many of these deal with other application of Baye’s rule. This is an extreme case, though! Taking one example on page 45 regarding breast cancer. Deciding whether to have a mammogram or other medical screening the book examines several requires people to calculate the risk that is inherent is taking these tests.?

But gigerrenzer the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as Misunderstanding of the results of the test can lead to unnecessary trauma and hardship.

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The book contains some useful information, but it is highly repetitious. Feb 18, Elizabeth rated it really liked it. Following the perhaps present standard of care, however, he doctor insisted she be monitored more closely, with more frequent mammography and another biopsy at a future time.

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The author speaks in a gentle and friendly voice, guiding readers into the land of statistics. Now the answer is obvious. Jul 29, Nayef Ahmad rated it it was amazing.

Copyright Cahners Business Information, Inc. This is a very clearly written book. A critic of the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, he argues that heuristics should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as riddled with irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive rationality as an adaptive tool that is not identica Gerd Gigerenzer is a German psychologist who has studied the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making, especially in medicine.

Calculated Risks

But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.

Paperbackpages. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. Currently you have JavaScript disabled. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live gigerenzzer an illusion of certainty.

The author shows that not only is the general public consistently bad at estimating these true probabilities, but that earnest professionals who rely on such numbers for decision-making, are likewise almost as bad! East Dane Designer Men’s Fashion.

If the base rate probability of breast cancer is 0. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. About everyday situations which require people to make decisions based on statistics, and the way those statistics are badly misunderstood and miscommunicated. For example, imagine that out of 10, people who are tested for HIV, 1 is infected, and this individual will test positive with almost absolute certainty.

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Your email address will not be published. Landslide of numbers smother our eyes and ears. For example, when we are presented with the risks of, let’s say, treatment with a statin drug, there are three ways to present the benefits – absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and something called number needed to treat NNT.

Furthermore, people assume that administering a second test will eliminate all doubts. In order to assess risk — everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests — we need a basic understanding of statistics. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. The author was very didactic.

Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Interesting but disappointingly one-dimensional book whose sole idea is that: In order to assess risk — everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests — we need a basic understanding of statistics. Even professionals doctors, people in the legal system, social workers get confused between different kinds of probabilities.

Calculated Risks | Book by Gerd Gigerenzer | Official Publisher Page | Simon & Schuster

This requires education of not only the patient, but also the physician. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1, women will reap. People have had breasts removed on the basis of faulty screening that they were enticed into receiving given the impressively high but mostly irrelevant measure of relative, versus absolute, risk reduction.

All innumerates buyers, sellers, students, professors, doctors, patients, lawyers and their clients, politicians, voters, writers and readers have something to learn from Gigerenzer’s quirky yet understandable book. Gigerenzer uses logic, math, and common sense to explain the fascinating pull of statistics used by those who try to influence us.

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